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A surprising election result – again!

There are those who believe that the old style of governemnt is impervious and any challenge is therefore doomed to failure. With a typical Gallic shrug France has said NON to that concept and has placed Emmanuel Macron, a fresh faced candidate with neither left nor right principles, within touching distance of the top job.

In France, the election process is somewhat similar to the US version where the first round merely eliminates also ran candidates leaving the two leaders to then fight it out over the following two week period.

So it transpired that the far right party of Marine le Pen found themselves up against this youth who had no previous political experience and who denied any allegiance to any other established political organisation.

France went to the polls and delivered a shock result.

The Reaction

As a reaction to that Marin Le Pen has resigned from her position as leader of the National Front which was established by her father.

Is it too little too late?

Two opinion polls yesterday gave Mr Macron between 61 and 64 per cent of the final vote

Despite that strong position his advisers are anxious to avoid the appearance of complacency. Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, a former Republicans minister who is the sort of figure that Mr Macron needs to woo, said: “They are acting like it is a foregone conclusion, but it isn’t.”

Who is he?

Who is he?

Unlike Le Pen who would throw out all old associations and would give serious consideration to a FREXIT, Macron is a strong advocate of the European Union and so his election success would mean a tougher negotiation for Teresa May. There would be no soft deals available and Britain could well find itself further isolated as France injects significant credibility back into the EU.

How does France align itself?

It makes an interesting political map. If you were to draw a centre line down through France from north to south you would have a reasonable representation of how the country voted, with the far right being on the right of the map and the left and centre parties being on the left.

It is also significant that all the other parties who have failed to make it into the final vote have aligned themselves with Macron.

What does that mean beyond France?

From a financial perspective, it is likely that the success of Macron would cause some damage to Sterling as the strong no-nonsense position adopted by Teresa May could well prove an obstacle in any future negotiation. With Macron voicing unprecedented support for the Club it is likely that other members, such as Germany, will feel themselves enlivened and emboldened, to the extent that many will enjoy the opportunity to make the British exit a less than positive affair.

How is le Pen reacting?

While Macrons party, En Marche, pushes a liberal, pro-EU agenda Le Pen wants to slash immigration, clamp down on free trade, and overturn France's relationship with Europe. Despite her far-right antecedents this would bring great relief to the Brexit camp

Her campaign agenda includes

  Negotiation with Brussels on a new agreement and a FREXIT referendum

 "Automatic" expulsion of illegal immigrants and legal immigration cut to 10,000 per year following an immediate total moratorium

 "Extremist" mosques closed and priority to French nationals in social housing

  Retirement age fixed at 60 and 35-hour week assured

Following the first-round results, Ms Le Pen made an "appeal to all patriots", saying a vote for her was the key to the " . . . . survival of France".   

The final vote takes place on May 7th and until then there will be many nervous onlookers.   

For Emmanuel Macron could it be -

“Le jour de gloire est arrivé!”

He is a young man who revels in the fact that he has no political experience. “The old regimes have nothing left to offer France!” is his clarion call.

He is also a strong advocate of the European Union and for those who support the Brexit process his election could be bad news.

They have nothing left to offer France!

So why is this relevant?!

And what about the Front National?

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Article by “Tony Myles”

France went to the polls